Georgia and the Sudetenland

I heard an interesting opinion on NPR this evening on the way home from work. The topic was the Georgian-Russian conflict that is going on as I speak. The expert, a history professor, was comparing the similarities between modern Russia and Germany between the world wars. Both nations, he argued, were feeling that they had fallen and needed to reassert their national greatness. Both nations want/ed to reestablish their "natural" territorial boundaries. The analogy was chilling. The expert went on to suggest that the unified West should stop Russian integration into the EU, punish the Russians by dissolving their special committees in the UN, and so forth.

And let us not forget the recent tendency of the Russian government to assassinate annoying ex-patriots in other sovereign countries.

If Russia is in the same position as Germany circa 1938, I don't know why this expert thinks any of the things he suggested will make a damn bit of difference. Does anyone think that canceling the Olympics in 1936 would have stopped Hitler's Germany from its aggressive course of action? This is a Neville Chamberlain tactic and it is doomed to the same results, again, assuming the analogy between Germany and Russia holds water. The ONLY thing that would have checked Germany would have been a military response by England, France, etc. When the "Allied" world did not respond militarily, then Hitler saw it as a lack of resolve and was encouraged to go further. Plugged back into Russia's invasion of Georgia, whatever pretense they are using be it a need for "living room" or because they are "obligated a peacekeepers" the implications of the 1938 example are staggering.

Of course this isn't 1938. While we are in a recession as we were in '38, many other things are different. For example, the U.S. military is currently deployed meaning it is busy and not able to respond if it wanted to (and don't think the Russians don't know it.) Also, The Russians have nuclear weapons and that is the most chilling aspect of all. Take a moment to think what would have happened during WWII if Hitler had had nuclear capability in 1938.

One thing is the same though. The thought of getting a unified anything from the West is just as absurd now as it was then. If 1938 is the truest analogy in history, then as in 1938, I am sure that, human nature being what it is, we will delay too long before acting.